Avatar vs Titanic — What Will Be the Final Outcome?

he last two weekends saw the Avatar vs Titanic box office derby reach a point where Titanic finally began to beat Avatar on a “same day of run” basis, and so now that this “crossover” point has been achieved, it’s as good a time as any to take a look at where the two are now, and where Avatar is likely to end up. As of President’s Day Monday, Avatar had reached a total Domestic Gross of $666,388,502, while through the same number of days in release Titanic had reached 376,270,721. This means that Titanic still had $225M of business to go.

Avatar Hits $30M (Just Like We Predicted); Beats Estimates and Wins 7th Weekend Box Office Race; Now Within $6M of Titanic's US Domestic Record

The Sunday morning weekend studio estimates are out and Fox has Avatar pulling in $30M in its 7th frame, soundly thumping Mel Gibson’s Edge of Darkness ($17m) and When in Rome ($13M). This represents a drop of only 14% from the previous weekend, and is $4M higher than the average Friday prediction by the experts 0f $26m. Our prediction of $30m, published Friday, seems to have been spot on.

Box Office Prediction: James Cameron's Avatar Will Exceed Expectations (Again) and Pull $53M This Weekend

the predictions in the mid forties are all to some degree premised on the expectation that this weekend, with the holidays finally over, Avatar will finally take the 40% drop that these same predictors were looking for each of the last two weekends. In each case Avatar surprised them, so I’m wondering just a bit why they are so timid at this point given the data that’s available. Avatar has held strong during the week; it is tracking much more like Titanic than ‘normal’ pictures, and Titanic only dropped 16% on it’s fourth weekend, pulling in $28M. Avatar did 68.3m last weekend and a 16% drop would mean $57.4m. I’m projecting $53m, which is a 23% drop.