As Avatar rolls into its sixth weekend, it faces competition from three newcomers including Dwayne Johnson’s comedy “Tooth Fairy”, the horror flick “Legion” starring Paul Bettany as an archangel to save mankind, and Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser in “Extraordinary Measures”.  So — what are Avatar’s prospects for holding on to the top spot for a sixth frame,  and where will it land?  Here’s what the experts are saying:

  • Box Office Guru: Avatar $32m, Tooth Fairy $18m, Book of Eli $16m
  • Film School Rejects:  Avatar $31m, Tooth Fairy $24M, Book of Eli $19m
  • Blogcritics: Avatar $32M, Tooth Fairy $20m, Book of Eli $18m
  • Box Office Prophet: Avatar $32M, Book of Eli $18.7, Tooth Fairy $18.7

You get the drift — everyone is basically predicting a 25% dropoff from last weekend’s $43m for Avatar.  The theory is there are three new pics; last week was a 3 day weekend; and 25% is still a very modest dropoff.  How did Titanic do in the equivalent weekend?  Well, Titanic clocked in at $30m on the MLK weekend and $25.2M the following weekend, a dropoff of 15.9%.  Now, Avatar has been tracking closely with Titanic in terms of dropoff rates — usually a tiny bit behind, but not 10% behind.

So, based on intense analysis of Titanic trends, Avatar trends, and a desire to continue my winning streak against these experts, I’m going to say ….. $34M for Avatar. Which, by the way, will take Avatar past The Dark Knight into the number 2 all-time position.

Globally, Avatar will cross the $1.8m threshold and be knocking on the door of overtaking Titanic.  Oh, and by the way, I don’t buy all the language out there that Avatar will “sink Titanic”.  Come on, this is a friendly race between sibling rivals.  Titanic’s accomplishment is extraordinary and even after Avatar passes it there will still be the issue of ticket prices, inflation-adjusted analysis, etc.  No disrespect to Titanic in any of this. Rather, awe and kudos to James Cameron.  He’s figured something out, hasn’t he?

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