Breaking Down Pacquiao-Marquez II — How the second fight looks on a "Preponderance of Evidence" Scorecard

When I took Pacquiao-Marquez I and broke it down via a “Preponderance of Evidence” scorecard that correlated the judges’ round by round cards; compubox round by round stats; and intangibles, I didn’t quite know what I was getting into. It took me two nights and a morning to get it done. Now it’s fight day and there’s been enough clamor in my email box for a similar exercise with Pacquiao-Marquez 2, that I feel compelled to try and do the same thing with the second bout, but I’ll obviously have to be a little more efficient about it. The good news is, I now have a system and it works like this:

  • UNANIMOUS ROUNDS: Line up the Judges scorecards and if all three judges’ cards are unanimous, then that trumps everything and the POE scorecard has to be consistent with the judges.
  • MAJORITY ROUNDS IN AGREEMENT WITH COMPUBOX: If the judges scorecards aren’t unanimous, use compubox to validate the majority decision.  If two of three judges and compubox agree, then the POE card has to go with the majority decision of the judges for the round.
  • MAJORITY ROUNDS AT ODDS WITH COMPUBOX:  If the majority decision of the judges for a round is at odds with the compubox stats for that round, look deeper and pay attention to all the other inputs — Emmanuel Steward’s comments during the round, Merchant and Lampley’s comments, Lederman’s card, and Berestain/Roach comments after the round as they talk to their fighter.
First — some preliminary observations based on a pre-viewing analysis of the scorecards and compubox statistics:
  • Unlike Pacquiao-Marquez 1, the number of rounds that are unanimous with all three judges and compubox in agreement is quite high.  Of the 12 rounds, 8 rounds are unanimous.  So there are only four rounds in this fight which are not unanimous: 6,9,11,12
  • In the first two of these — 6 and 9 — compubox and the majority view of the judges are in agreement, so in essence compubox endorses the majority ruling of the judges.
  • In rounds 11 and 12, however, there is an interesting anomaly in which compubox and the judges do NOT agree.
    • In fact, in round 10 the judges are unanimous in giving the round to Marquez, but Compubox shows Pacquaio leading in overall punchstats 16-10, and in power punches 11-10.  This is a very rare anomaly and will bear substantial scrutiny in the viewing.
  • Here is a very intriguing stat:  With everything on the line in a close fight, Marquez won and Pacquiao lost the championship rounds — 11 and 12 — on all the judge’s cards in Pac-Mar 1, and in Pac-Mar 2 he loses 11 and 12 again — with 11 being unanimous and 12 being a majority decision with 2 of 3 judges favoring Marquez.

March 15, 2008

Manny Pacquiao vs Juan Manuel Marquez I

Judges: Tom Miller, Duane Ford, Jerry Roth

Referee: Kenny Bayless
Announcers: Jim Lampley, Larry Merchant, Emmanuel Steward, and Harold Lederman (HBO Unofficial Judge)

Pre-Fight

Lamply Intro: “They first met 7.5 years ago. Marquez is on a 13 fight win streak. Pacquiao was coming off 11gth round knockout of Barrerra.”

Round 1

UNANIMOUS ROUND FOR PACQUIAO

Pac is committed to the jab, athough his first power shot is a left without a jab leading it.

Best shot of the round so far is a Marquez right at 1:05 which snaps Pacquio’s head back.

Pac is busier.

Hard left by Pacquiao at 30 seconds.  Good flurry.

 

Post Round 1 Analysis/Commentary

Roach: “All right Manny. Back this guy up with the double jab a little more for me, okay.”

Berestain: “Real good, real good.  The right straight or the right off….”

Judges Cards:

  • Official Cards
    • Miller: Pac 10-9
    • Ford: Pac 10-9
    • Roth: Pac 10-9
  • Unofficial
    • Lederman Card: Pac 10-9
  • Compubox (Overall/Pwr)
    • Pac  12/8 to Mar 6/4
  • 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
    • Pacquiao 10-9 (Unanimous undisputed round)

 

Round 2

UNANIMOUS ROUND FOR MARQUEZ

Steward: Pacquiao has a really good upper body rhythm.

Merhant: Pac looks like he wanst to make Marquez fight him more than box him.

Nothiner much in first minute — very tactical.

Good left by Mar at 1:39

Steward: When Pac throws his left, he doesnt’ get as out of position as he did in years past.

Good flurry at 1:07 that partially buckles Marques’s legs.

Good counters from Marquez.

Hard left by Manny at 20 seconds.

Good counter by Mar at 12.

Uppercut by Marq at 9 and HUGE LEFT from Mar at end of round, good for Pac it came at the end, as it staggered him.

 

Post Round 2 Analysis/Commentary

Roach: “He can’t handle your speed.  You gotta use the double jab and put that left hand right behind it, okay?

Berestain: “Lively, lively.  When he throws that straight punch to the body, come over it. Give it the counterpunch. Very nice. Lively, lively.”

Judges Cards:

  • Official Cards
    • Miller: Mar 10-9
    • Ford: Mar 10-9
    • Roth: Mar 10-9
  • Unofficial
    • Lederman Card: Mar 10-9 (19/19)
  • Compubox (Overall/Pwr)
    • Mar  18/12 to Pac 9/9
  • 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
    • Mar 10/9 (19/19)

Round 3

UNANIMOUS 10-8 ROUND FOR PACQUIAO

In the first minute, Pac is backing up Mrquez.

Mar lands a straight right at 2:04, snaps Pac’s head back.

Steward: “As the fight goes on I see Pac becoming tentative himself now.”

Head butt at 1:20

Round is up for grabs at 40 seconds to go

Good left from Pac at 28

BOOM.. Marquez goes down from a good left by Pac

Steward: Marquez is hurt, he’s very lucky this came at the end of the round

Just before the bell Pac hits Mar with another big left and Marquez buckles, and is held up by the ropes as the bell rings.

Marquez heads off toward Pac’s corner after the bell — he’s definitely feeling it as Kenny Bayless redirects him to his own corner.

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Judges Cards:

  • Official Cards
    • Miller: Pac 10-8
    • Ford: Pac 10-8
    • Roth: Pac 10-8
  • Unofficial
    • Lederman Card: Pac 10-8
  • Compubox (Overall/Pwr)
    • Pac  13/9 to Mar 13/7
  • 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
    • Pacquiao 10-8

Round 4

UNANIMOUS ROUND FOR PACQUIAO

Lampley: “Marquez trying to go back to the body and trying to back to a more tactical style now.  Pacquiao trying to search and destroy, Marquez trying to counter.”

Steward: I”m really impressed by Pacquiao’s timing and coordination…”

Pac is the aggressor for the first minute.

Lampley: “It’s almost as if Marquez has decided to face the inevitable.”

Steward: “Pacquiao’s confidence is building up now and he’s shooting his missiles now.”

Merchant: “This is the kind of firefight Marquez didn’t want to get into.”

Steward: “Yeah, you’re not going to outbox Pacquiao, so he’s gonna have to fight him.  Pacquiao seems stronger now.”

Good left by Marquez at :39

Merhant: “it’s a measure of Pac’s iprovement as a fighter how measured he’s been in this round.”

 

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Berestain: “You’re doing good, doing good. Protecct yourself.”

Judges Cards:

  • Official Cards
    • Miller: Pac 10-9
    • Ford: Pac 10-9
    • Roth: Pac 10-9
  • Unofficial
    • Lederman Card:  Pac 10-9
  • Compubox (Overall/Pwr)
    • Pac  19/13 to Mar 14/9
  • 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
    • Pacquiao 10-9

 Round 5

UNANIMOUS ROUND FOR MARQUEZ

First minute — not much.

Steward:  At this stage Pacquiao looks so strong mentally and physically.

Merchant: Two good jabs from Pacquiao, something we seldom saw in the past.

Good exchange at 1:34 favors Marquez

Good right by marquez at :45

Good right by Marquez at :16

Steward: Marquez may have won this round.

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Berestain: With the hook, with the right, use whatever you can.  And the uppercut…the right uppercut, with the hook to the liver.

Roach: All right, I want you to get busy out there. When you’re first, you control him.

Judges Cards:

  • Official Cards
    • Miller: Mar 10-9
    • Ford: Mar 10-9
    • Roth: Mar 10-9
  • Unofficial
    • Lederman Card: Mar 10-9
  • Compubox (Overall/Pwr)
    • Mar 12/10 to Pac 10/4
  • 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
    • Marquez 10-9 (Unanimous undisputed round)

Round 6

DISPUTED MAJORITY ROUND FOR PACQUIAO

Lampley: Body shot by Marquez, Nacho Berestain wa sasking for that.  There is a slight abrasion outside of one of Manny Pacquiao’s eyes.

Steward: Manny has lost his rhythm, he’s got to get his rhythm back.

Lampley: Right now, Marquez has got him back on a string.

Good shot by Marqeuz at 1:19, followed by a left hook

Lampley: “Marquez is outboxing…”

Merchant: “As improved as Pacquiao’s right hand is, I would take my chances on him beating me with that one.”

Good counterpuch from Marquez at :15

Lampley: “In rounds like this you can feel Manuel Marquez outthinking Manny Pacquiao….clearly Marquez won that round.”

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Roach: “Manny, you’re letting this get away from you.  You’re standing right in front of this guy letting him get off his combinations.

Berestain: “Finish off your punches, finish off your combinations.  When you throw right, throw the hook, the hook to the left, then the uppercut, come on, you haven’t thrown one. Throw to the body. Come on, his mouth is open already.”

Judges Cards:

  • Official Cards
    • Miller: Pac 10-9 (Pac 58-55)
    • Ford: Pac  10-9 (Pac 58-55)
    • Roth: Mar 10-9  (Pac 57-56)
  • Unofficial
    • Lederman Card: Mar 10-9 (Pac 57-56)
  • Compubox (Overall/Pwr)
    • Pac  16/13 To Mar 15/14 (very nearly even)
  • 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
    • Marquez 10-9 (Pac 57-56)  see comment below for the rationale.

COMMENT:  Very interesting — this is a non-unanimous round so normally we go to compubox to confirm the majority judges’ decision, but compubox is inconclusive.  So we go to other things. Pac gets 2 of 3 official judges but look at what lines up for Marquez: 1 official judge, plus Lederman and Merchant (via comment at the beginning of the next round), plus Lampley, plus Steward, plus even Freddie Roach after the round.  I think you have to give it to Marquez even though two of the three official cards gave it to Pacquiao.  Sorry, Pacfans (and I’m one), but the purpose of this exercise is not just to affirm the Pacquiao victory, it’s to look deeply into all the evidence.  The evidence here favors Marquez for this round.  Will this be enough to turn the ultimate outcome of the fight on the POE card?  I don’t know.

Round 7

UNANIMOUS ROUND FOR MARQUEZ

Good left by Marquez at 2:35.

Steward: “This is really Marquez’s style of fighting…but I like the energy of Pacquiao, even when he goes back between rounds.

Accidental head butt at 1:38 – Marquez is cut.

Lampley: “Fortunately for Marquez the cut is outside his eye.”

Pacquiao landsed a good left hook, momentarily lifted Marquez.

Really good exchange at :40

Merchant: “After that exchange, Marquez was in balance and Paquiao was not.”

Marquez lands a good right

Pac lands two hard lefts.

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Judges Cards:

  • Official Cards
    • Miller: Mar 10-9 (Pac 67-65)
    • Ford: Mar 10-9  (Pac 67-65)
    • Roth: Mar 10-9 (Even 66-66)
  • Unofficial
    • Lederman Card: Pac 10-9 (Pac 67-65)
  • Compubox (Overall/Pwr)
    • Mar 15/12 to Pac 12/8
  • 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
    • Marquez 10-9 (66-66)

Round 8

UNANIMOUS ROUND FOR MARQUEZ

Good straight by M at 2:35 and bothers Pac’s eye.

Pac’s eye is bleeding pretty well and its bothering him.

(Note:  At 2:16 Pac takes a step and grimaces as if that step hurt — has nothing to do with his eye. More like a blister or a momentary cramp.  His punch output goes way, way down in this round–something definitely going on.)

At 2:08 Pac overreacts to a Marquez feint — also unusual.

At 2:05 Mar has Pac on the ropes, until Pac breaks away at 2:00

Lampley: “Pacquiao’s cut is right in the eyelid, or in the eye.”

Pac makes a lunging attack at :58 but then immediately covers up and Marquz pummels him.

At :33 Marquez snaps Pac’s head back twice with two quick shots.

Pac becomes the aggressor at :20, lands some good punches.

 

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Roach:

Judges Cards:

  • Official Cards
    • Miller: Mar 10-9 (Pac 76-75)
    • Ford: Mar 10-9  (Pac 76-75)
    • Roth: Mar 10-9 (Mar 76-75)
  • Unofficial
    • Lederman Card:
  • Compubox (Overall/Pwr)
    • Mar 21/15 to Pac 5/5
  • 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
    • Marquez 10-9 (Mar 76-75)

Round 9

NON-UNANIMOUS ROUND FOR PACQUIAO

First minute Pac is the aggressor and controls the action.

Hard right hand (unusual) from Pac at 1:58, causing Marquez to hold on (also unusual)

Good right lead by Marquez at 1:35

A flurry for Marquez at 1:31

Hard left from Pac at 1:23

Pac rushes Mar at 1:18 but doesn’t land; Pac lands a counter left at 1:12

Good combination by Pac at :51

Another flurry by Pac at :47

Body shot by Marquez

Lampley: “This round is on the table with 40 seconds to go.”

Merchant: “Yeah…”

Steward: “But the momentum is going to Pacquiao now….”

At :25 Pac lands a solid left and Bayless calls time out to have Marquez eye, which is bleeding steadily but not that badly, examined by the doctor.  Marquez seems a little disoriented and has to be directed to the doctor.   Doc checks the eye, says “He can continue but keep an eye on it.”

Steward and Lampley determine that Marquez has a new cut, and that’s the one that caused the timeout — not the head butt. This one is on the eyelid.

At :08 Marquez rushes but Pac counters him and then lands a solid left.   They trade at the end but Pac gets the better.

COMMENT:  Watching and rewatching this, it should have been a unanimous round for Pac.

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Berestain:  “You stopped pressing, you stopped pressing. That’s when he caught you. Press him, press him.”

Judges Cards:

  • Official Cards
    • Miller: Pac 10-9 (Pac 86-84)
    • Ford: Pac 10-9 (Pac 86-84)
    • Roth: Mar 10-9 (Mar 86-84)
  • Unofficial
    • Lederman Card: Pac 10-9 (Pac 86-84)
  • Compubox (Overall/Pwr)
    • Pac  13/11 to Mar 12/9
  • 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
    • Pacquiao 10-9 (Even 85-85)

Round 10

UNANIMOUS ROUND FOR PACQUIAO

At 2:42 Pac lands a huge left that almost floors Marquez. His knees buckle and he barely stays up.

Pac follows up with a flurry and has Marquez on the ropes.

Pac builds up a big early lead in this round.

Round becomes tactical at the 2 minute mark.

Big left by Pac at 1:56

Lampley at 1:49: “Big round for Pacquiao so far.”

Another big left by Pac at :56

Good right by Marquez at :46

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Berestain: You’re not pressing him, you’re not pressing him.  Come on press, Juan, it’s only to more rounds.

Judges Cards:

  • Official Cards
    • Miller: Pac 10-9 (Pac 96-93)
    • Ford: Pac 10-9 (Pac 96-93)
    • Roth: Pac  10-9 (Mar 95-94)
  • Unofficial
    • Lederman Card: Pac 10-9 (Pac 96-93)
  • Compubox (Overall/Pwr)
    • Pac  17/13 to Mar 15/13
  • 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
    • Pacquiao 10-9 (Pac 95-94)

Round 11

UNANIMOUS ROUND FOR MARQUEZ BUT COMPUBOX DISPUTES THIS

Lampley: It would be no injustice if Jeff Davis stopped the fight because of the cut over Marquez’ eye. It is a brutal gash.”

No clear advantage in the first minutes.

Bayless warns Marquez for low blow at 2:10

Pac takes 10 seconds to recover — it must have really landed.

Marquez lands a good shot at 1:29

Marquez lands two more at 1:25

Pac lands a good left at 1:22

Even exchanges in the first part of the last minute of the round.

Mar good combination at :36

Lampley at the end: “Unless he has won this round, and that is iffy, Marquez is slipping into that area where he may need a knockout to win the fight.”

 

 

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Berestain:  You’re doing good but don’ t let him …. .push him back, push him back.  Attack the body, attack the body and then finish off with the right, and then the uppercut.  That’s all Juan, you gotta come up with everything.

Roach:

Judges Cards:

  • Official Cards
    • Miller: Mar 10-9 (Pac 105-103)
    • Ford: Mar 10-9 (Pac 105-103)
    • Roth: Mar 10-9 (Mar 105-103)
  • Unofficial
    • Lederman Card: Mar 10-9 (Pac 105-103)
  • Compubox (Overall/Pwr)
    • Pac  13/11 to Mar 12/9
  • 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
    • Marquez 10-9 (Even 104-104)
  • Merchant says: “I have this fight 6-5 for Marquez, which means I have an even fight, due to the knockdown by Pacquiao.”  (He has the same card as the POE card.)

Round 12

NON-UNANIMOUS MARQUEZ ROUND

Marquez lands a good right at 2:28.

Pac lands at 2:21

Marquez good combination at 2:16

Pac rushes, lands, causes Mar to hold at 1:53

Good uppercut by marquez at 1:43

Steward: If Marquez can just stay away from Pacquiao’s left, he could end up winning this round, which could be crucial.

Lampley: Solid shots by Marquez and he ducks Manny.

Steward: What he did was perfect.

Good left by Marquez at 1:18

Good combo by Pac at 1:15

Lampley: “Solid shot by Pacquiao but up to this point Juan Manuel is winning the round.”

Good exchange at :54 –Marquez gets the better of it.

Steward: Whatever the decision is, is one thing, but this round — it looks like Marquez is winning the round.

They trade down the stretch.

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Judges Cards:

  • Official Cards
    • Miller: Mar 10-9 (Pac wins 114-113)
    • Ford: Mar 10-9 (Pac wins 115-112)
    • Roth: Mar 10-9 (Mar wins 115-112)
  • Unofficial
    • Lederman Card:
  • Compubox (Overall/Pwr)
    • Mar 19/15 to Pac 15/10
  • 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
    • Marquez 10-9 (Marquez wins 114-113)

Comment:  Well, I didn’t see that coming but after the sixth round in which I had to overrule the majority judge decision– that was all it took.

Now, let’s look at the two fights using the POE Scorecard:

  • Pacquiao Marquez 1 : Pacquiao wins 114-113)
  • Pacquiao Marquez 2: Marquez wins 114-113
Folks, I did NOT cook the books to make it come out that way. That’s just the way the chips fell.
And by the way — while I overruled a majority judge decision once in favor or Marquez in this fight, I did the same thing once in favor of Pacquiao in the first fight so that’s even.  If I didn’t overrule at all — then Pac would lose the first fight and win this one.  That’s how close these are.
And, according to the Preponderance of Evidence Scorecards, they go into tonights fight dead even at 228-228 for the two fights.
Pretty interesting.

The Evidence

Click to enlarge

The Official Scorecard

Compubox Final Stats

 

Consolidated Preponderence of Evidence Worksheet

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