Prediction: Avatar to Bring in $45M for the Jan 15-17 Weekend

It’s Friday again and Avatar weekend box office prediction time is here.  Last weekend most predictions were in the low to mid $40m range.  Avatar was initially reported to have done $48.5M; this was subsequently upgraded to $50.3m.  I had predicted $53M so I was close, but a little bit over. What about this weekend?  The main new competition is Denzel Washington in “The Book of Eli” and Jackie Chan in the Spy Next Door.  These two should do about $28M (Eli) and $12M (Spy).  What are the experts writing about Avatar?

• Entertainment Weekly: $45M
• Box Office Guru: $40M
• Film School Rejects: $37M
• Hollywood Reporter: $37M

Here’s some historical data.

• The all-time record for the MLK weekend is $46.9M – Cloverfield.  It seems unlikely that Avatar, on it’s fifth weekend, will top that but it won’t lose by much.
• The all-time record for a 5th weekend is Titanic with $30m.  Avatar is pretty much assured of claiming that title.   It’s significant that Titanic actually increased from $28m on its fourth weekend to $30m on the MLK weekend — its fifth.  But Titanic, skewing toward a female demographic,  wasn’t as effected by the big, four NFL playoff game weekend as Avatar likely will be — so there is little chance that Avatar will increase vs the previous weekend.

Okay, prediction time.  I’m going with $45m for Friday/Sat/Sunday.  That will give Avatar the new record for 5th weekend but will fall short of beating Cloverfield for all-time MLK weekend.