Box Office Prediction: James Cameron's Avatar Will Exceed Expectations (Again) and Pull $53M This Weekend

the predictions in the mid forties are all to some degree premised on the expectation that this weekend, with the holidays finally over, Avatar will finally take the 40% drop that these same predictors were looking for each of the last two weekends. In each case Avatar surprised them, so I’m wondering just a bit why they are so timid at this point given the data that’s available. Avatar has held strong during the week; it is tracking much more like Titanic than ‘normal’ pictures, and Titanic only dropped 16% on it’s fourth weekend, pulling in $28M. Avatar did 68.3m last weekend and a 16% drop would mean $57.4m. I’m projecting $53m, which is a 23% drop.

Surviving Umiyak Pati Langit – My First Film (Part 2)

here are times in life when the ridiculousness of what is going wrong rises to a level where you just have to shake your head and grimly hang on. This was one such a moment. I could feel the blood rushing to my head as I thought about the financial train wreck that was about to happen — but the more immediate problem of getting Lorna to the hospital provided a sort of respite. Sometimes there are things that come along which just pretty much demand your full attention — this was one.

Avatar's "Left Wing Agenda" — Setting a Few Things Straight

While there is no doubt that on the human side there’s a military force and the colonel leading this force is an American — it is also made clear at the very beginning of the movie that this is a mercenary force, not the US Army.

Memories: Umiyak Pati Langit (My First Movie)

Someday I’m going to put out a memoir along the lines of “Dispatches from the Trenches of Indie Film Warfare”….so along the way, I’m going to make a point of doing a post about each film–what the experience was like. This is the first installment, and it might be called “How to Make a Movie

The Avatar Backlash

Today is the last day of the holiday break, and this afternoon I’m going to see Avatar for the third time — seems a fitting way to end the holidays, since Avatar has been much on my mind throughout this period — and tomorrow it will be back to the grind, with little time available

Avatar Posts $68.3M For New Years Weekend

EDI Nielsen is reporting this morning that Avatar will earn $68.3M on this, its third weekend in release based on studio estimates on Sunday morning.    There is a possibility it might go a bit higher — indeed, every other time there has been a ‘studio estimate’ the figure has been revised upward when final

Avatar vs Titanic Tracking Site Now Up

I’ve just finished putting up http://avatarvstitanic.wordpress.com — a daily tracking site to watch how Avatar proceeds in the “beat Titanic” derby I’ve been writing about.  I’ll be updating it daily in the coming weeks.  I’ll look pretty stupid if all my predictions turn out to be wrong.  Anyway, it’s just for fun.

Any Doubt Avatar Will Surpass Titanic Now?

Last week as the week was rolling along, I got the feeling that people were not putting Avatar’s Box Office performance into perspective — that people weren’t studying the trend lines which showed it has a very different trajectory than a ‘typical’ 75m opening weekend film would have.  So … dipping my toes into the

Defending My Avatar Box Office Prediction

Well, it seems I hit a nerve with my prediction that Avatar will overtake Titanic and could possibly go as high as $1B domestically.  I’ve been getting a lot of heat on some discussion boards.  My prediction was called “insane”, “outrageous”, and more. In my original post I gave some of the stats that led

Random (Gushing) Thoughts on Avatar

When’s the last time you came out of a movie and just wanted to get in line and see it again right then?  When’s the last time you wanted to shout to the people in line waiting to get in –it’s INCREDIBLY AWESOME, PEOPLE?  That’s how strongly I felt when I walked out of the

Time to Re-Invent Myself as Michael D. Sellers, Filmseller

Pretty much everyone out there who knows me, knows that for the past fifteen years or so I’ve been plying my trade as a hands-on film-maker — a writer, producer, and (more recently) director.  My most recent film is Beneath the Blue, which is now very close to being finished.  I’ve been blogging about the

"Slumdog Millionaire" One For the Ages

Most importantly — this being the season when we want to believe we are connected to one another, and want to feel affirmation of that whether it’s in gatherings with friends or encountering carolers on the street (and I encountered some just after coming out of the movie…couldn’t help but feel it was connected in some way) … this is a movie that provides the kind of uplift and connectivity that we all want and need — perhaps moreso this year than others.

Smith's Point Screening

by Michael D. Sellers Last stop on our trip to the Bahamas was to screen Eye of the Dolphin for the townspeople of Smith’s Point — the tiny town that is featured in the film. We set it up outdoors just outside the town hall and almos everyone in the town was there. It was

Bahamas Trip Update #4

by Michael Sellers Quick notes is all I have time for…..we’re off an running in fifteen minutes: Yesterday was another long and fruitful day. We did crew interviews all morning and are finding some good local crew — more than were available the first time. We feel we have found at least a half dozen

Bahamas Update 1

by Michael D. Sellers Susan Johnson and I arrived last night and we’re off and running this morning to Smith’s Point, UNEXSO, other locations, as well as looking for crew accomodation, meeting some boat owners and marine suppliers. I will provide a more substantive update later at the end of the day. In the meantime

Worst Movie of All Time? 10,000 BC Comes Close

by Michael D. Sellers Once a decade or so a movie comes along that is so outrageously dumb and filled with folly that the idea pops into your head–could this be the worst movie of all time? 10,000 BC is such a movie. At a minimum its among the most unforgivably dumb movies of all

Remembering Umiyak Pati Langit — My First Film (Part 1)

by Michael D. Sellers Someday I’m going to put out a memoir along the lines of “Dispatches from the Trenches of Indie Film Warfare”….so along the way, I’m going to make a point of doing a post about each film–what the experience was like. This is the first installment. Photo: A quiet street in Quezon

In (Modest) Defense of "Fool's Gold"

I’m going to disagree with the critical concensus which is exceedingly hostile to this film and I’m going to say it works pretty well on its own terms. The operative phrase is “on its own terms”. You see, I think that the first measure we should apply to a film is — did it do what it set out to do? This film clearly sets out to provie a hundred minutes or so of light, imagery-rich entertainment that at best enables the audience to escape their own drudgery into a rum-filled, aqua-blue-green universe that just has to seem inviting to anyone snowed in or simply enduring the drudgery of winter. It’s got a good, engaging pair of stars; the story has enough character ‘hook’ — both in the McConaughey/Hudson romantic storyline, and the Sutherland/Dziena father/daughter B line — to make us care .

Lions Gate to Release EOD DVD in the UK

From Michael SellersLions Gate will be releasing Eye of the Dolphin on DVD in the UK in June…..here is their artwork which just came in. As we have discussed at various times, Adrian Dunbar who plays Hawk is quite a star in the UK and should help the sales there. In Ireland and Northern Ireland

Dolphin Cam Discussion

by Michael D. SellersPaul Mockler (our underwater cinematographer), Ken Levasseur (dolphin specialist), and I had an interesting conference call yesterday to discuss ways that we can achieve a kind of “dolphin cam” — means of communicating the point of view perspective of a dolphin including high speed underwater travel and the way that a dolphin

The Amazing Red Digital Cinema Camera

by Michael D. SellersAs technology marches on, we come to expect great things but it all generally increases incrementally, so it’s really rare when something comes along and seems to take a huge leap past all the competition. That’s what’s happenig now with the revolutionary Red Digital Cinema Camera system which seems almost too good